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India should prioritize the internationalization of the rupee rather than pursuing de-dollarization. The US dollar remains the dominant reserve currency, accounting for approximately 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, despite the recognition of eight major reserve currencies by the IMF.
A resilient US economy and escalating global geopolitical tensions are prompting asset managers to reassess their outlook on the dollar. Recent data reveals that pension funds, insurance firms, and mutual funds have reduced their net dollar short positions to $2.05 billion, the lowest since April 2017. Meanwhile, hedge funds have increased their bullish positions by 9.3%, maintaining a positive stance on the US currency since October.
Gold prices fell by 0.33% to Rs 75,910 on December 6, 2024, according to MCX data. The price of 24-carat gold in Mumbai was Rs 75,550, while 22-carat gold was priced at Rs 71,950. Despite the recent decline, gold's spot market value has increased by 20.30% since the beginning of the year and is up 22.05% year-over-year, although it remains below the peak of Rs 79,362 reached on October 30, 2024.
China's exports are expected to have grown in November, although at a slower pace compared to the previous month. This trend reflects a proactive approach by Chinese exporters, who likely accelerated shipments in anticipation of increasing tariff risks from the incoming U.S. administration.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is navigating a challenging economic landscape with stagnant growth and high inflation. It has maintained the repo rate at 6.5% while reducing the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to enhance liquidity, aiming to stabilize the rupee and attract foreign currency deposits. Despite these measures, growth forecasts for FY25 have been lowered to 6.6%, and inflation is projected at 4.8%, exacerbating the cycle of weak demand and limited investment.
Hedge funds have ramped up short positions against the Australian dollar, driven by weak growth data that heighten expectations for policy easing. In the week ending December 3, leveraged funds increased their bearish bets to the highest level since September, while institutional asset managers expressed their most pessimistic outlook in a month.
Indian markets experienced a rally in the first week of December, fueled by foreign investments totaling ₹11,933.59 crores after two months of selling. The Sensex rose by 2.38%, and the Nifty50 increased by 2.26%, with mid-cap and small-cap stocks climbing over 3% for the third consecutive week.
Asian markets showed mixed performance amid concerns over South Korea's political situation and anticipation of new stimulus from Beijing. Indian indices, including Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower, following a volatile session where Nifty closed below 24,700 after the RBI maintained the repo rate and reduced the CRR to enhance liquidity.
Oil prices showed mixed results as rising tensions in the Middle East countered demand concerns. Brent crude futures dipped slightly to $71.11 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose to $67.21 per barrel. Brent experienced a decline of over 2.5% last week, and WTI fell by 1.2%, with analysts predicting a supply surplus next year due to weak demand, despite OPEC+ extending production cuts until the end of 2026. Saudi Aramco has also lowered its January 2025 prices for Asian buyers, reflecting the impact of reduced demand from China.
Donald Trump has criticized the substantial financial support the US provides to Canada and Mexico, amounting to USD 100 billion and USD 300 billion annually, respectively. He has threatened to impose significant tariffs on both countries unless they curb illegal immigration into the US, suggesting that if the US is subsidizing them, they should consider becoming states. Trump emphasized the need for a fair and level playing field in international relations.
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